January 2011
19 posts
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Looks like the week will start "Risk off" →
The Egypt situation is still a thorn in the bull market rally at this point. Oil however is rising to 90+ dollars. If oil continues rising, it will endanger the already fragile recovery in the US and the globe.
On the bright side, Japan came out with a strong Industrial Production number and signals that demand continues to increase from Japan’s trading partners. The global recovery...
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Robot Heart: Sex, Religion, and Politics: Biden:... →
newsflick:
Vice President Biden, issuing the Obama administration’s most definitive statement to date on the turmoil in Egypt, said President Hosni Mubarak should not step down and downplayed the protests spreading across the Mideast as generally unconnected.
He described the unrest as…
….. Don’t like the sound of this.
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WatchMarkets are tanking as the Egypt issue is gaining momentum. Reminds me of Greece. While Egypt isn’t that big a player on the global stage, the Suez Canal, which is an important waterway for oil shipments may be shut down. This explains why oil is up 4+% today.
Come on Fed, keep printing. Give investors more liquidity to bid up asset prices. These are the results.
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Keep Printing Funny Money Fed. Just keep... →
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Bullish / Bearish Thoughts for today
Bullish
Confidence is rising.
Reports of more job openings as per the confidence report.
Corporate Profits continue to come in strong
Bearish
Mortgage applications show that sales continue to be sluggish
Gallup Poll of Job creation has been receding
More grumblings from China as they introduce more measures to reduce sales.
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Good timing eh? →
No sooner than my previous post earlier today did Starbucks report that margins will be squeezed as a result of higher coffee prices.
My thesis stands in that in the US at least, debt levels are very high and the feeble gains in the job market coupled with continued deleveraging (steady rising savings rate) will act as a persistent anchor on consumer demand. This anchor will result in...
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LOLOLOLOL →
Of course the government may have to take exception action in the future. Why? Because the crisis wasn’t dealt with properly in the first place! Bailouts are NOT the answer and with a double-dipping housing market, the financials are once again sweating.
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This is a result of massive funny-money... →
Prices are bid up and the poor suffer. Continuing to follow QE as a viable strategy to pull the economy out of recession will flat out not work. Oil prices are already over 90 dollars. Given that the US is quite dependent on gasoline, any further improvement in the economy will simply be met with higher gas prices until the whole system short-circuits. When is the 64MM dollar question.
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Rose Colored Glasses →
Investors still don’t get the fact that consumers continue to be cautious. On the positive side though, the job market continues to improve. However, will it be enough to cause consumer spending to accelerate? No doubt it will help, but the housing market continues to show signs of double-dipping and that’s not good for consumer psyche. Remember, it was the housing market that led...
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One of the many risks bubbling underneath →
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Don't get me wrong
We are indeed in an economic recovery, however, it will not be strong enough to create a SUSTAINABLE recovery. It’s good to be in the markets when you know a recovery is coming. But it’s here. Now is not a very good time to be in the markets. The recovery has been priced in and there are LOTS of negative catalysts that are bubbling underneath. Caution is warranted. It’s ok...
ASA Staffing Index Ends Year at Record High →
More Bullish news coming from the Job market….ADP was also strong. All seems to be going well!!
Still not buying the sustainable recovery picture though. Jobs usually lag any type of recovery and the factor that led us down in the first place (the housing market) is already moving lower after a false dawn.
Mort Zuckerman: "Home Prices Will Decline For... →
Holy Crap, I didn’t know that the John Hancock Building had gone into foreclosure! Or that Mort Zuckerman is now the owner.
The main gist of the article? Home prices continue their double dip and that will lead to a tapering off of consumption growth. The main catalyst for the financial panic and recession in 2007-2009 has not been taken care of.