January 2012
161 posts
1 tag
Jan 1st
December 2011
164 posts
4 tags
Weekly Bull/Bear Recap: December 26-30, 2011
Bull + U.S. manufacturing continues to show signs of steady growth.  The economy isn’t headed towards recession.  The Chicago ISM reports that its PMI report fell a smidgen, from a 7-month high to 62.5.  Order Backlogs are at their strongest level since April and will keep activity elevated in the region.  Meanwhile, the Richmond Manufacturing Index indicates stabilization, particularly in...
Dec 30th
13 notes
3 tags
The Bonddad Blog: A peek inside ECRI's black box →
Great article here on what may be in the ECRI Leading Index, which the bears point as a warning of oncoming recession.  The author also makes a strong bullish case for the economy towards the end of the article.  
Dec 30th
4 notes
1 tag
Dec 30th
3 notes
China manufacturing cools further, survey shows -... →
Dec 30th
2 tags
WatchWatch
— 2011: A Year in Review — (WSJ)
Dec 30th
11 notes
2 tags
Dec 30th
209 notes
1 tag
Dec 30th
2 tags
Dec 30th
9 notes
Dec 29th
1 note
1 tag
Dec 29th
7 notes
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Dec 29th
3 notes
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Euro Drops to 10-Year Low Against Yen - Bloomberg →
It seems the Euro is on a one-way ticket to depreciation.  The ECB’s balance sheet now surpasses the Fed’s in size, @ $3.53 Trillion (with a T).   Unfortunately, there is such little confidence that more liquidity (cause it’s a solvency problem and an imbalance of trade flows, both long-term problems) will do the trick that the Euro just fell to an almost one-year low vs. the...
Dec 29th
8 notes
Dec 29th
14 notes
2 tags
Consumer confidence hits 8-month high - Economic... →
Confidence surveys have been mirroring jobs data.  The economy continues to improve.  Is it the holiday cheer, or are the fundamentals changing?   I believe that eventually a weaker global economy will bite the U.S. economy.  The Shanghai Index just hit a 33 month low, while copper, the Ph D in economics, isn’t breaking out along with U.S. indices.  In fact, it’s currently down...
Dec 27th
Dallas, Richmond Fed manufacturing surveys improve... →
Dec 27th
1 tag
Dec 24th
1 note
Dec 24th
1 note
18 tags
Weekly Bull/Bear Recap: X-Mas '11 Edition
Bull ++ U.S. data continues to show an economy that’s weathering a turbulent global economy much better than the bears could have ever anticipated: The Dow Theory has flagged a buy signal.  Both the Dow and Trannie indices  notch new highs.  This price action corroborates underlying U.S. economic strength.  The equity bull market is set to continue.  The Conference Board’s Leading...
Dec 24th
5 notes
Dec 24th
Leading indicators rise in November - UPI.com →
This indicator is at direct odds with the ECRI leading indicator.  Who’s right?
Dec 24th
1 note
2 tags
Israeli domestic debate on war with Iran -... →
Dec 24th
1 note
Business Asia: The Incredible Falling Yuan -... →
So much for those that predicted that the Yuan would skyrocket against the dollar.  
Dec 24th
North Korean leader Kim Jong-il dies at 69 -... →
Dec 19th
U.S. Senate Passes Payroll Tax Cut Extension -... →
Dec 17th
4 tags
Dec 17th
5 notes
18 tags
Weekly Bull/Bear Recap: December 12-16, 2011
Bull ++ The U.S. economy has clearly surprised to the upside.  Gloomy analysts have underestimated its strength, even in the face of global economic troubles.  These external issues will eventually resolve themselves in benign fashion.   U.S. manufacturing data this week demonstrates continued improvement.  Led by New Orders and Expectations, both the Philly Fed and Empire State manufacturing...
Dec 16th
146 notes
Mexico sees G20 IMF funds deal in Q1: official |... →
Dec 16th
U.S. Shoppers Foot Bill for Soaring Pay in China -... →
Along with funny money printing, inflation may eventually return with a vengeance as wages between China and the U.S. equalize.    
Dec 16th
9 REASONS THE U.S. EQUITY MARKET HAS THE GREEN... →
All decent points.  The final answer will come from sovereign bond yields.  Keep a close eye on how these trade.    
Dec 16th
1 note
1 tag
Dec 16th
Dec 16th
Cashin On The Coordinated Commodity Collapse →
The end is pretty scary.  2031?
Dec 16th
3 tags
Dec 16th
5 notes
Dec 16th
2 notes
Dec 16th
2 notes
1 tag
Dec 16th
2 tags
Chinese Spring coming up? | thetrader.se →
My speculation on the possibility of a “Chinese Spring” has been noted by none other than Stratfor.  Most investors still expect a soft-landing.  The trend of the news is pointing towards a more damning solution.     
Dec 16th
7 notes
Italy risks social explosion over austerity: union... →
Dec 15th
1 note
4 tags
Dec 15th
36 notes
1 tag
“European leaders have repeatedly insisted the pact’s substance will not be...”
– EU treaty hopes come under strain - FT.com —————————- Furthermore, the current treaty forbids the ECB from monetizing the debt.  Yet, I still read how “printing” is inevitable.   Perhaps it will take care of acute pressures.  But...
Dec 14th
1 tag
“If Paul wins Iowa, which is not out of the question, then you’re going to...”
– Ron Paul Could Lead From Behind - WSJ.com ————————————————— Join forces with OWS.  Please.  
Dec 14th
1 tag
Skills gap hobbles US employers - FT.com →
…”He is offering a salary of more than $80,000 with overtime, including health and pension benefits. Yet in spite of extensive advertising, he has had no qualified applicants. He is trying to train some of his unskilled staff but says none has the ability or drive to complete the training. Mr Greenblatt’s predicament speaks to one of the biggest economic debates about today’s 8.6 per...
Dec 14th
2 tags
China Lays Out Economic Policy for 2012 - WSJ.com →
This is a secular bullish tidbit.  The global restructuring is taking place.   While it will take a period of time, there is a secular transformation taking place, which will yield superb opportunities in the years to come.   In the meantime, strap on your seat beats as it looks to be a wild ride in 2012.   
Dec 14th
3 notes
1 tag
Dear Nouriel Roubini: The Fundamental Case for... →
It’s certainly a compelling story to say that Gold is headed to the moon as central bankers (planners) continue to print money to their heart’s content and remain irresponsible.  The dollar (fiat currencies in general actually) would suffer as a result.  May gold bugs have been caught off-guard due to the Fed’s “responsible,” for once, action of not resorting to...
Dec 14th
2 notes
2 tags
Dec 14th
10 notes
3 tags
WatchWatch
The interview gets a little too political, but it’s always a good laugh to see Davidowitz explain the status of the consumer (he spits out some good stats).  
Dec 14th
1 tag
China: One of Our Best Export Customers →
We are at an interesting time in history.  I’ve probably come across as an advocate of protectionism if you’ve read my prior posts.  I’m actually not.  However, engaging in free trade without the parameter of equalized (or semi-equal) wages is detrimental to our development.  Our industrial base has been gutted over the years and shipped to lower wage countries.   However,...
Dec 14th
1 note
3 tags
Dec 14th
2 notes
Hard drive shortages hit Intel earnings |... →
Here’s why there is a shortage. This doesn’t lend credence to the “falling demand” story so it doesn’t support the bearish thesis.  Then again, earnings are what drive stock (risk) markets.  
Dec 14th