February 2012
90 posts
Mitt Romney's Campaign Could Be In SERIOUS Trouble →
Iran shadow war intensifies, crosses borders |... →
“As bombings go, this week’s trio of apparent attempted attacks on Israeli targets — which also included an attack on a car carrying the wife of an Israeli diplomat in New Delhi and a bomb found attached to an Israeli diplomatic vehicle in the Georgian capital Tbilisi — seemed unusually inept.
But security experts believe they sent a clear message, the first serious...
U.S. Says Iran's Nuclear Claim Is 'Hype;' Oil... →
U.S. Stocks Rise on Economic Data - Bloomberg →
Germany Eyes Approval for Greek Rescue - Bloomberg →
Sarkozy referendum pledge a carrot for disgruntled... →
Li(e)borgate Set To Become "Next Big Litigation... →
Fed minutes show few supporters for QE3 - The Fed... →
4 tags
Iran Says It Loaded Locally Made Fuel to Nuke -... →
“Iranian scientists achieved the breakthrough in line with a policy of “nuclear energy for all and nuclear weapons for none,” the Islamic Republic News Agency said. It shows that Iran won’t be intimidated and will pursue its technological advancement, the Iranian Students News Agency said.
The announcement comes at a time of increased tension between Iran and western powers over its...
3 tags
What Does Declining Gasoline Consumption Mean? →
Mish was the first to hit on this and now Barry seems to be intrigued by a significant divergence in fuel usage and visions of economic reacceleration dancing in analysts’ heads. Note that both this phenomenon and a, thus far, non-confirmation of the Dow Theory is a growing thorn for further advances for risk-assets.
Certainly something to keep an eye on.
Policy Update: Extension of payroll tax cut and... →
“From a bullish perspective, we haven’t had additional stimulus because economic activity has maintained momentum. Furthermore, I expect another extension of the payroll-tax break and unemployment benefits as well as political debate to reverse automatic spending cuts in 2013, warranted by the super-committee’s failure to cut the government’s budget deficit. This would cushion some of the...
MBA: Purchase Applications Decrease in Latest... →
Here’s a short-term indicator that flags continued sluggishness in housing demand.
NAHB Builder Confidence index increases in... →
While still signaling contraction, the trend is undoubtedly higher. Housing is the process of bottoming, however, don’t expect the good old days of week over week condo flipping and easy money anytime soon.
Eurozone divisions threaten Greece aid - FT.com →
It seems that the LTRO has provided the coveted firewall needed for officials to boot Greece out of the Eurozone. Most believe that a hard default can be contained. This is the $64,000 question.
1 tag
Despite Two Thirds Of Components Declining, Empire... →
Here’s the bearish spin on the Empire Manufacturing data. I must admit, the virility of the data seems suspect when important sub-indices such as New Orders, Backlogs, Inventories, Prices Received, and Employment all showed declines.
1 tag
Industrial Production unchanged in January,... →
While the headline disappointed, it wasn’t due to sluggishness in manufacturing. In line with this morning’s Empire manufacturing report, the sector continues to grow and confound the naysayers.
At what point will slowing global growth translate to sluggishness at home? What if it doesn’t? I admit, I’m surprised that we haven’t seen softening economic numbers,...
Geithner: Corporate tax plan to come 'soon' -... →
3 tags
“The most positive statement that can be made about January’s reading is...”
– NFIB small-business index inches higher in January - MarketWatch
2 tags
Boeing Signs Record Order from Lion for 737s -... →
Emerging markets will increasingly take the global baton from developed markets. This global restructuring will hit potholes along the way, but they will be temporary in nature.
Retail sales in U.S. increase 0.4% in January -... →
Housing: Short Sales increase, Foreclosure Sales... →
Cracks in Agreement in Greece, Finland, Germany,... →
The situation in Europe continues to deteriorate and that nasty word, at least to European technocrats, “referendum” is increasingly bandied about.
3 tags
World-First: Jawbone Created with 3D Printing →
7 tags
Samaras Pledges To "Renegotiate" Bailout Pact... →
The probability of political chaos in Europe in March/April is increasing. We have this little nugget as well as French elections during that time frame.
Once again, if you’re a bull and have to buy, I’d buy oil. Note that I remain cautiously bearish in general.
Crude Spikes To Two Weeks High Following Israel... →
Geopolitical risks remain high and are increasing. If you had to buying anything, better it be oil.
Economic recovery continues? Buy oil on demand growth.
Middle East tensions erupt? Buy oil.
China's central bank wary of easing policy: report... →
Japan Economy Shrinks on Export Slump -- Bloomberg
“Japan’s economy shrank an annualized 2.3 percent in the fourth quarter, more than economists estimated, as slumping exports undermine a recovery from last year’s record earthquake.” — Bloomberg
The Manufacturing Industry's Secret Success Story →
(RCS): Exports have hit all time highs. I believe that manufacturing may continue to provide much needed growth for the U.S. economy over the long-term. In the short to medium-term however, the business environment is likely to deteriorate if we have a Eurozone implosion or China hard landing.
A World Flying Blind -- Andy Xie →
“So, 2012 will be an extremely difficult year. The global economy is likely to slip into recession, as Europe and Japan are mired in deep recession and emerging economies stall. Black swan events, such as a sovereign default in Europe, an emerging market crash, a surge in oil prices due to conflict in the Middle East, and a selloff in Japan or the U.S.’s sovereign debt market, will haunt the...
Global Financial Crisis: A World in Debt →
Great, but scary, infographic.
French Industrial Output Slumps as Italy Posts... →
Total U.S. Trade Sets New Record High in 2011 →
“Bottom Line: What is already getting the most media attention about today’s trade report is the “bad news” that: a) the U.S. trade deficit increased in December and for the year, b) the trade deficit with China “soared to a record high” last year, and c) the reason for the trade deficit with China is because it “deliberately undervalues its currency to...
Greek Police Threaten IMF Arrests Due To... →
“Additionally, housing may no longer be viewed as the secure investment it once...”
– Bernanke: “Housing Markets in Transition”
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Housing will remain a drag on the economy for the foreseeable future. The substantial positive multiplier effects that the sector used to provide to the economy are greatly diminished. At best, the economy will...
Petroleum 3-Month Rolling Average Turns Sharply... →
Recent data hasn’t been supportive of global trade. As austerity continues to bite the Eurozone, I expect global trade to slow further.
Worse, the French election is fast approaching and is likely to produce some negative headlines and rock the boat of a very complacent market (VIX just bounced off 17 and there’s pervasive bullish sentiment). We’re also approaching the top...
S&P Downgrades 34 Of 37 Italian Banks - Full... →