Wage Gap With China Continues to Shrink, Which Will Mean More Manufacturing Production in U.S.
This is a secular trend, which will have indelible effects on many macro factors.
For starters it would mean an more pronounced recovery in the U.S vs. the one we’ve experienced since mid-2009. However, because of our Fed’s myopic strategy of continuous QE, inflation will become a more persistent problem. Furthermore a steady source of this inflation (the rise of China) will probably result in the top for the Treasury bull market that has been in place for the past 3 decades.
While these events aren’t knocking at the door (I see some more upside for Treasuries and continued disinflationary pressures in 2012), the genesis of these profound long-term trends are in their infancy and will continue to grow. I’m thinking they will become more observable in 2013-2015.
I’ll be including these thoughts in my next outlook (Beg.-Year 2012)
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rationalcapitalistspeculator posted this