Recent data hasn’t been supportive of global trade.  As austerity continues to bite the Eurozone, I expect global trade to slow further.  

Worse, the French election is fast approaching and is likely to produce some negative headlines and rock the boat of a very complacent market (VIX just bounced off 17 and there’s pervasive bullish sentiment).  We’re also approaching the top end of the channel for the S&P 500.  It’s time to focus on technical indicators for any weakness in the coming days.  If the market breaks under 1,300, I’ll begin adding short positions.  I remain of the view that macro headwinds will strengthen over the shorter-term and investors are not prepared to face significant turbulence in the months ahead.  

Remember that S&P 500 earnings are quite reliant on the state of the global economy.  Proceed with caution.