Germany Should Leave Euro First If Currency Fails, Stiglitz Says -- SF Chronicle
On to damage control. This makes the most sense in my view as well and no I don’t say that because I’m talking up my book (I’m quite bullish on the dollar “DXY”) :-)
If Germany leaves the Euro, the currency would fall in value as one of its most powerful members leaves. That would make it easier for weak Eurozone members to pay back their Euro denominated debts with weaker Euros. In effect it would be a method of inflating one’s way out of the debt. Germany, with a stronger D-Mark, would have little problem paying back their debt as well.
Note that it would be painful for all economies should the Eurozone break up. A stronger D-Mark would be a large headwind for the export dependent German economy and would more than likely result in recession.
Meanwhile, a devalued Euro could possibly result in a stagflationary scenario for weaker countries as a weaker Euro would result in inflation for essentials, while large damage to financial institutions would limit lending and disrupt commerce.