Monday, June 30, 2014 Thursday, June 19, 2014 Monday, March 17, 2014 Sunday, March 9, 2014

"There are no facts, only interpretations." — Friedrich Nietzsche. (February economic notables)

“There are no facts, only interpretations.” — Friedrich Nietzsche. (February economic notables)

Friedrich Nietzsche: Feb Economic Notables

Good evening,

Below is a concise 2-page report recapping economic data from the U.S., Europe, and Asia released in February. My next report will cover recent geopolitical events (Ukraine; droughts in South Asia, etc.)

Highlights:

Investors are interpreting worsening economic data in major economies as transitory and manageable. Upcoming months will be key in discerning the genuine trend.

The…

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Saturday, February 1, 2014 Monday, January 27, 2014 Thursday, January 23, 2014 Thursday, January 9, 2014 Friday, December 27, 2013 Wednesday, December 25, 2013 Thursday, December 19, 2013 Sunday, October 20, 2013
Last Week in Brazil and Mexico: October 14-18, 2013

Succinct summation of macro events in the first and second largest economies of the LATAM region.


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Last Week in Brazil and Mexico: October 14-18, 2013

Succinct summation of macro events in the first and second largest economies of the LATAM region.

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Monday, September 23, 2013 Thursday, August 30, 2012
A weak economy and high unemployment could hurt President Barack Obama re-election chances in November and bolster Republican challenger Mitt Romney’s campaign. Republicans are in Tampa, Florida, this week to formally nominate Romney and have pointed to the dismal growth in making the case to elect their candidate. (via New GDP Numbers Do Obama No Favors — US Business News - CNBC)
- - - - - - - - - - - - 
I’ve had a jump on this trend since the beginning of the year:
  "While Obama has exercised enormous patience for China’s economic restructuring, political will is clearly decreasing.  Mitt Romney looks to be the front-runner for the Republican Party in the presidential elections.  It is clear that he has no misgivings on China being a currency manipulator.  If the U.S. economy were to go into a double-dip recession, Obama’s chances of reelection would decrease markedly, while Romney’s would increase.  The probability of this political outcome can be seen in real time here, here and here (notice the inverse correlation between the final two charts).”
- - - - - - - - - - - 
Here’s my mid year outlook:
"If one’s higher probability scenario calls further economic turbulence, like mine, it would be prudent to begin wondering what life would be like under a Romney presidency in regard to global trade."
- - - - - - - - - - -  
While it’s not a given that Romney will win, it seems that a worsening economy would doom Obama.  
On the other hand, the revision upwards was due to stronger than expected consumer spending:
- - - - - - - - - - - - - 
“The upward revision to second-quarter growth was largely because consumers spent at a slightly faster pace than first estimated. Consumer spending grew a 1.7 percent rate, better than the 1.5 percent initial estimated. Exports, which add to growth, were also stronger, growing at a 6 percent rate.” — CNBC

A weak economy and high unemployment could hurt President Barack Obama re-election chances in November and bolster Republican challenger Mitt Romney’s campaign. Republicans are in Tampa, Florida, this week to formally nominate Romney and have pointed to the dismal growth in making the case to elect their candidate. (via New GDP Numbers Do Obama No Favors — US Business News - CNBC)


- - - - - - - - - - - - 

I’ve had a jump on this trend since the beginning of the year:

"While Obama has exercised enormous patience for China’s economic restructuring, political will is clearly decreasing.  Mitt Romney looks to be the front-runner for the Republican Party in the presidential elections.  It is clear that he has no misgivings on China being a currency manipulator.  If the U.S. economy were to go into a double-dip recession, Obama’s chances of reelection would decrease markedly, while Romney’s would increase.  The probability of this political outcome can be seen in real time here, here and here (notice the inverse correlation between the final two charts).”

- - - - - - - - - - - 

Here’s my mid year outlook:

"If one’s higher probability scenario calls further economic turbulence, like mine, it would be prudent to begin wondering what life would be like under a Romney presidency in regard to global trade."

- - - - - - - - - - -  

While it’s not a given that Romney will win, it seems that a worsening economy would doom Obama.  

On the other hand, the revision upwards was due to stronger than expected consumer spending:

- - - - - - - - - - - - - 

The upward revision to second-quarter growth was largely because consumers spent at a slightly faster pace than first estimated. Consumer spending grew a 1.7 percent rate, better than the 1.5 percent initial estimated. Exports, which add to growth, were also stronger, growing at a 6 percent rate.” — CNBC


Wednesday, August 22, 2012
Overall growth of economic activity remains weak and vulnerable to an exogenous shock such as a blow up in Europe, a hardlanding in China, a crisis of confidence, etc.  However, on the bullish end, it continues.  

Overall growth of economic activity remains weak and vulnerable to an exogenous shock such as a blow up in Europe, a hardlanding in China, a crisis of confidence, etc.  However, on the bullish end, it continues.