I dunno why, but I feel like we are about to experience a big move in the markets (in 3 weeks max). My hunch is that the dollar is in a retesting phase and that this will be another medium (perhaps major) bottom.
There are way too many risks out there and complacency is just ridiculous.
“$100 oil won’t be enough to derail the recovery” is the main sentiment of investors…
The VIX plunged 10% today despite Saudi Arabia’s stock market free-falling as the Day of Rage comes up. Furthermore, just look at the VIX level now (considering a MAJOR oil producer is in danger of riots and oil delivery disruptions) versus the level it achieved when Greece was going down….this comparison bring the obvious conclusion that investors are not paying attention to the worsening situation in the Middle East.
Manufacturing ISM numbers come in strong (Chicago PMI too)…manufacturing continues to carry the US economy on the back of a weaker dollar and increasing global growth. This is translating to expanding hiring plans.
In December, consumers did their part in helping the recovery as their spending and income numbers posted healthy increases. Contrary to bears making the claim that consumers will remain cautious, they continue to surprise.
ADP and ISM employment sub-index shows that job growth is improving. Challenger Job-Cut survey shows that all in all, the firings are completed. Companies are running lean.
Geopolitics continues to be a headwind as uncertainty on how Egypt will play out (contagion effects?) has oil steadily rising. If oil and other commodities continue climbing, company profits may get squeezed as they find it more difficult to pass rising costs to consumers, or consumers buy less (in the US).
Retail sales numbers are starting to signal weakness in growth. While winter storms are cited as the reason, the real one is because we still have a weak job market and uncertainty on whether job growth will come back. Growth up to this point in the job market has remained quite weak.
Housing remains in a funk.
Addendum to Irish Bailout Announcement
After about an hour for the Euro to absorb the Irish bailout news, it still remains undecisive which way it wants to go (there could be a bullish inverted head and shoulders forming).
Market action this week will be very interesting as it may signal whether the bailout plan was successful in establishing confidence that the Eurozone has seen the last of its debt problems.