Monday, March 24, 2014

RCS Investments Global Macro Fund; Aggressive Allocation — March ‘14

RCS Investments Global Macro Fund; Aggressive Allocation — March ’14

Portfolio Management

When I published my outlook at the end of last year, I began a portfolio embracing the biases of the report. I published my positions on the right hand border of this blog on 12/31/13 and have updated them periodically. All history has been documented on my websites. Included in the fact sheet below is the composition of my portfolio as of this past Friday along with performance metrics against…

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Sunday, February 2, 2014
Executive Summary of RCS Investments 2014 Global Macro OutlookHello there,
I was told that having an executive summary of my extensive macro outlook, written at…View Post

Executive Summary of RCS Investments 2014 Global Macro Outlook

Hello there,

I was told that having an executive summary of my extensive macro outlook, written at…

View Post

Tuesday, January 21, 2014 Wednesday, April 10, 2013 Wednesday, August 22, 2012 Sunday, July 22, 2012

Starting the Week: Jul. 23-27, 2012 

Upcoming Economic Releases/Events I’m Watching

July 23

  • Taiwanese Industrial Production
  • Chicago Fed National Activity Index

July 24

  • French Business Survey and PMIs (Manufacturing/Services)
  • German PMIs (Manufacturing/Services) and Ifo Biz Climate Survey
  • Canadian Headline and Core-Retail Sales
  • Redbook and Goldman ICSC surveys (U.S.)
  • Richmond Manufacturing Index (U.S.)
  • U.S. Home Prices
  • Australian CPI

July 25

  • U.S. New Home Sales
  • Thai Interest Rate Decision
  • Italian Consumer Confidence
  • U.K. GDP and Industrial Orders
  • Mexican Economic Activity
  • South Korean GDP

July 26

  • Singaporean Industrial Production
  • German GfK Consumer Climate and CPI
  • Italian Retail Sales
  • European Private Loans
  • Brazilian Unemployment Rate
  • South Korean Current Account
  • Japanese Retail Sales
  • U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Kansas City Fed regional manufacturing survey

July 27

  • Thai Industrial Production
  • French Consumer Confidence
  • Spanish Unemployment Rate
  • Italian Business Confidence 
  • U.S. Q2 GDP (Advance)
  • UMich Consumer Sentiment


Technical Notes:

  • Resistance: 1,372-1,380
  • Support: 1,358-1,360 (100-day MA and strong support line)
  • Support: 1,334-1,341 (Upward trend line from June lows and 50-day MA) 
  • Support: 1,315 (200-day MA)
  • On the bullish end, market (S&P 500) broke out of triangle (daily view) to the upside; however, it wasn’t able to hold and fell back into the pattern on higher volume and is a bearish event.    

General Notes: 

  • Bearish:  Unsustainable situation in Europe —  Spanish and Italian yields.
  • Bearish: Hard sell off in copper at resistance.
  • Bullish Housing data — will it be enough to counteract slowing manufacturing and job market?
  • Bullish: China stabilization — wildcard in the outlook.  China is a blackbox.  Rumblings from leaders are not very optimistic.
Portfolio Adjustment: Due to a worsening Eurozone situation and the potential of contagion as well as weakness in China (copper prices), I am adjusting my portfolio and increasing downside exposure this week.  Buy stops to be placed to protect against unforeseen price increases.  (New allocation below)
  from  
Saturday, July 7, 2012 Friday, July 6, 2012 Wednesday, July 4, 2012
RCS Investments Macro Outlook (Mid-2012)
Hello there,
In my updated macro outlook, I have compiled all my Weekly Bull/Bear Recaps from the past 6 months, together with my latest research and interpretation of current events.  In it, I cover the most important macro trends to watch over the coming year as well as their possible implications.  I am encouraged by the fact that the majority of my past forecasts have been on target.  I look to publish my market outlook by the end of the week.
I hope my work will prove beneficial to your interpretation of current events.   
Thank you for your support

RCS Investments Macro Outlook (Mid-2012)

Hello there,

In my updated macro outlook, I have compiled all my Weekly Bull/Bear Recaps from the past 6 months, together with my latest research and interpretation of current events.  In it, I cover the most important macro trends to watch over the coming year as well as their possible implications.  I am encouraged by the fact that the majority of my past forecasts have been on target.  I look to publish my market outlook by the end of the week.

I hope my work will prove beneficial to your interpretation of current events.   

Thank you for your support

Sunday, June 3, 2012 Monday, January 16, 2012
(via RCS Investments Outlook (Begn-2012) « RCS Investments)
————————————
This is my latest official macro outlook.  Enjoy!  

(via RCS Investments Outlook (Begn-2012) « RCS Investments)

————————————

This is my latest official macro outlook.  Enjoy!  

Monday, October 24, 2011
—Latest missive—- Financial Times.  Here’s some info on Ray Dalio.
His concerns are the same as mine..  I’ve mentioned various times recently on how “protectionism” is seeping into both the popular and political psyche.  I’ve also voiced my concerns over the past year.  See below.   
— RCS Investments Outlook—Excerpt on China (Mid-Year 2011)

— RCS Investments Outlook— Excerpt on China (Beg- Year 2011)

Latest missive—- Financial Times.  Here’s some info on Ray Dalio.

His concerns are the same as mine..  I’ve mentioned various times recently on how “protectionism” is seeping into both the popular and political psyche.  I’ve also voiced my concerns over the past year.  See below.   

— RCS Investments Outlook—Excerpt on China (Mid-Year 2011)

— RCS Investments Outlook— Excerpt on China (Beg- Year 2011)

Sunday, July 31, 2011
The Week Ahead — Macro Factors to Watch
The most immediate tail-wind for risk markets is the arrival of an agreement for the US budget.  This may result in a relief rally as it removes the most immediate uncertainty from investor’s minds.  Additionally, for as much as China PMIs show that the region’s manufacturing is just a hair away from contraction, copper is within striking distance of its bull market high.  If the the price action breaks through in strong fashion, then it would be a big arrow in the bull’s quiver. 
Headwinds include a worsening Eurozone situation (yet again) as Italian and Spanish bond yields are challenging recent highs.  Concern has recently crept up as to whether the bailout fund will be able to actually fulfill its obligation. This will be a factor to keep a close eye on over the course of the week.
US Economic data will be plentiful. Among the more important releases in my view will be auto sales as well as factory orders.  These indicators may give us further confirmation on whether the recent soft patch is transitory or not. The ISM number should provide confirmation that manufacturing continued weakening if the regional reports are any indication. Finally, Friday’s jobs data will cap off what I believe is an important week for risk markets.
On the international front, we have important manufacturing data coming out of France and Germany on Monday. I’ll also be checking out Australian economic data to see if recent deterioration will persist. Coinciding with a Chinese slowdown, there’s also the possibility of a property bubble having burst in the island-continent.  Economic data has been confirming a larger than expected slowdown. Thursday will be an important day as German factory orders will indicate whether the region’s strongest economy will improve in the months ahead. The ECB will also decide on whether an interest rate adjustment, if any, takes place.

The Week Ahead — Macro Factors to Watch

The most immediate tail-wind for risk markets is the arrival of an agreement for the US budget.  This may result in a relief rally as it removes the most immediate uncertainty from investor’s minds.  Additionally, for as much as China PMIs show that the region’s manufacturing is just a hair away from contraction, copper is within striking distance of its bull market high.  If the the price action breaks through in strong fashion, then it would be a big arrow in the bull’s quiver. 

Headwinds include a worsening Eurozone situation (yet again) as Italian and Spanish bond yields are challenging recent highs.  Concern has recently crept up as to whether the bailout fund will be able to actually fulfill its obligation. This will be a factor to keep a close eye on over the course of the week.

US Economic data will be plentiful. Among the more important releases in my view will be auto sales as well as factory orders.  These indicators may give us further confirmation on whether the recent soft patch is transitory or not. The ISM number should provide confirmation that manufacturing continued weakening if the regional reports are any indication. Finally, Friday’s jobs data will cap off what I believe is an important week for risk markets.

On the international front, we have important manufacturing data coming out of France and Germany on Monday. I’ll also be checking out Australian economic data to see if recent deterioration will persist. Coinciding with a Chinese slowdown, there’s also the possibility of a property bubble having burst in the island-continent.  Economic data has been confirming a larger than expected slowdown. Thursday will be an important day as German factory orders will indicate whether the region’s strongest economy will improve in the months ahead. The ECB will also decide on whether an interest rate adjustment, if any, takes place.

Thursday, June 16, 2011

Take a Trip Through Rational Capitalist Speculator’s Mind.

I’ve just posted my updated Macro thesis as well as my financial market outlook.  I update these outlooks twice a year.  I put many hours into their preparation and regard them representative of my core beliefs and forecasts on the macro backdrop and financial markets.  

The updated macro thesis is a pretty long piece so grab a cup of coffee and get comfortable before you break into it.  I split this outlook into main “sections” in an effort to leave few “macro-stones” unturned.

My financial outlook is published separately in case you just want to know my current opinions on the markets.  

I hope you enjoy them as much as I enjoyed creating them.  

Thanks for your support,

Rodrigo 

Tuesday, April 12, 2011