RCS Investments Global Macro Fund; Aggressive Allocation — March ‘14
When I published my outlook at the end of last year, I began a portfolio embracing the biases of the report. I published my positions on the right hand border of this blog on 12/31/13 and have updated them periodically. All history has been documented on my websites. Included in the fact sheet below is the composition of my portfolio as of this past Friday along with performance metrics against…
Starting the Week: Jul. 23-27, 2012
- Taiwanese Industrial Production
- Chicago Fed National Activity Index
- French Business Survey and PMIs (Manufacturing/Services)
- German PMIs (Manufacturing/Services) and Ifo Biz Climate Survey
- Canadian Headline and Core-Retail Sales
- Redbook and Goldman ICSC surveys (U.S.)
- Richmond Manufacturing Index (U.S.)
- U.S. Home Prices
- Australian CPI
- U.S. New Home Sales
- Thai Interest Rate Decision
- Italian Consumer Confidence
- U.K. GDP and Industrial Orders
- Mexican Economic Activity
- South Korean GDP
- Singaporean Industrial Production
- German GfK Consumer Climate and CPI
- Italian Retail Sales
- European Private Loans
- Brazilian Unemployment Rate
- South Korean Current Account
- Japanese Retail Sales
- U.S. Durable Goods Orders and Kansas City Fed regional manufacturing survey
- Thai Industrial Production
- French Consumer Confidence
- Spanish Unemployment Rate
- Italian Business Confidence
- U.S. Q2 GDP (Advance)
- UMich Consumer Sentiment
- Resistance: 1,372-1,380
- Support: 1,358-1,360 (100-day MA and strong support line)
- Support: 1,334-1,341 (Upward trend line from June lows and 50-day MA)
- Support: 1,315 (200-day MA)
- On the bullish end, market (S&P 500) broke out of triangle (daily view) to the upside; however, it wasn’t able to hold and fell back into the pattern on higher volume and is a bearish event.
- Bearish: Unsustainable situation in Europe — Spanish and Italian yields.
- Bearish: Hard sell off in copper at resistance.
- Bullish Housing data — will it be enough to counteract slowing manufacturing and job market?
- Bullish: China stabilization — wildcard in the outlook. China is a blackbox. Rumblings from leaders are not very optimistic.
Take a Trip Through Rational Capitalist Speculator’s Mind.
I’ve just posted my updated Macro thesis as well as my financial market outlook. I update these outlooks twice a year. I put many hours into their preparation and regard them representative of my core beliefs and forecasts on the macro backdrop and financial markets.
The updated macro thesis is a pretty long piece so grab a cup of coffee and get comfortable before you break into it. I split this outlook into main “sections” in an effort to leave few “macro-stones” unturned.
My financial outlook is published separately in case you just want to know my current opinions on the markets.
I hope you enjoy them as much as I enjoyed creating them.
Thanks for your support,