Tuesday, June 26, 2012

Should Europe come out with solid advances on its path towards fiscal union this week, markets would likely rally.  Expectations are pretty low for this summit to produce substantial progress. 

Monday, June 11, 2012
Today was an ugly day for the bulls.  As of now, I take this signal as a vote of no confidence on the Spain bailout resolution.
While I thought the event would be bullish, the problem was in the details of the resolution.  It now sounds like Sovereign bondholders will be pushed down the seniority scale in exchange for the bailout money.  Spanish and Italian bonds fell today as a result.  
Technically speaking, the S&P 500 may be in a reverse head and shoulders and would be bullish if minor support at 1,295-1,300 held.  A break of major support at 1,266-1,270 would likely result in a further leg down.  

Today was an ugly day for the bulls.  As of now, I take this signal as a vote of no confidence on the Spain bailout resolution.

While I thought the event would be bullish, the problem was in the details of the resolution.  It now sounds like Sovereign bondholders will be pushed down the seniority scale in exchange for the bailout money.  Spanish and Italian bonds fell today as a result.  

Technically speaking, the S&P 500 may be in a reverse head and shoulders and would be bullish if minor support at 1,295-1,300 held.  A break of major support at 1,266-1,270 would likely result in a further leg down.  

Saturday, March 3, 2012

I’ve been MIA for a while now.  I’ve been busy attending to other professional endeavors.  I hope to gradually get back into the swing of things in the weeks to come.  

I feel very displaced from the hustle and bustle of markets and the incessant flux in the macro landscape.

For starters, some pictures (S&P 500 has hit a new bull market high recently and is bullish; Copper, nor the Dow Theory has confirmed though and is bearish).   

Monday, November 28, 2011

We Got Ourselves a Face Ripper

I began expecting a strong rally early Sunday (yesterday) given recent good news on further progress in the Eurozone.  Here are my thoughts on what they’re trying to do.

While the rally in risk assets certainly seemed impressive there were some “unanswered” questions.  1) Oil pulled a large bearish reversal (why?); 2) the bond market did not indulge in the new-found bullishness. Both 10 and 30-yr U.S.Treasury yields actually fell for the day.; 3) Copper, while it rose, also showed some weakness into the close.; 4) Italian yields didn’t budge (they still remain above 7%) and one of the rumors causing the rally was refuted (IMF).    

I’m going to hold back another day or two on placing hedges.  This rally will have to grow on me.  Let’s see if tomorrow provides follow-through.   

Sunday, August 7, 2011 Friday, May 20, 2011

Markets can be anywhere!  Here’s a veggie market. 

(From Carpe Diem)

Sunday, January 30, 2011 Wednesday, December 8, 2010 Friday, November 5, 2010
It’s madness I tell you!!  Buy everything! 
(Sarcasm oozing)
Summer of 2008 anyone?

It’s madness I tell you!!  Buy everything! 

(Sarcasm oozing)

Summer of 2008 anyone?