Does Obama want to push granny off a cliff? - Irwin Kellner - MarketWatch
The current CPI measures the cost of a fixed market basket of goods and services purchased regularly by a typical working household. By contrast, the chained CPI alters the weights of the items in the index to reflect changes in consumers’ buying patterns as relative prices change.
For example, if the price of meat goes up one month and the price of fish goes down, people will buy less meat and more fish. This means that their cost of living will go up more slowly, and thus their cost of living adjustment (COLA) will go up by less than it otherwise would.
But as far as seniors are concerned, the current COLA does not begin to cover the rise in their cost of living. This is because once someone retires, their expenses as a percentage of household income change.
Retirees buy fewer cars, houses and electronics — the prices of which are steady to falling — than do their younger, employed counterparts. On the other hand, they spend more on health care, food, energy and local taxes, for which prices, guess what, are actually rising faster than the current CPI. — Marketwatch
Here we go.
While I believed since the beginning of the year that Obama’s chances for reelection would be tied to which way the U.S. economy goes, and therefore deteriorating due to its continued sluggishness, they have fared better than I thought they would when I wrote my mid-year outlook in July. This has been due to a resilient economy even in the face of souring global business conditions. The election is still a barn burner though.
The situation in Europe continues to be delicate with Spanish and Italian 10-yr bond yields still elevated. On the bright side, it has improved with Italian bond yields testing an important support level and a visible downward trend in Spanish yields. If Italian yields can break through support and Spanish ones can remain at their current levels, there could be economic stabilization ahead.
Keep an eye on copper. A triangle, with its base beginning in 2011 is close to resolving. I believe its resolution will be a significant signal to the direction of the global economy.

Frankly, I didn’t watch the debate. I think both candidates are hacks as far as getting the economy back on track. Obama supported a privatize the gains and socialize the losses approach, while Romney is looking for a trade war against China.
BUT….. this isn’t about my pessimistic views…. it’s about first impressions about who won. It looks like Romney was the winner. I may be right after all.
A weak economy and high unemployment could hurt President Barack Obama re-election chances in November and bolster Republican challenger Mitt Romney’s campaign. Republicans are in Tampa, Florida, this week to formally nominate Romney and have pointed to the dismal growth in making the case to elect their candidate. (via New GDP Numbers Do Obama No Favors — US Business News - CNBC)
- - - - - - - - - - - -
I’ve had a jump on this trend since the beginning of the year:
“While Obama has exercised enormous patience for China’s economic restructuring, political will is clearly decreasing. Mitt Romney looks to be the front-runner for the Republican Party in the presidential elections. It is clear that he has no misgivings on China being a currency manipulator. If the U.S. economy were to go into a double-dip recession, Obama’s chances of reelection would decrease markedly, while Romney’s would increase. The probability of this political outcome can be seen in real time here, here and here (notice the inverse correlation between the final two charts).”
- - - - - - - - - - -
Here’s my mid year outlook:
“If one’s higher probability scenario calls further economic turbulence, like mine, it would be prudent to begin wondering what life would be like under a Romney presidency in regard to global trade.”
- - - - - - - - - - -
While it’s not a given that Romney will win, it seems that a worsening economy would doom Obama.
On the other hand, the revision upwards was due to stronger than expected consumer spending:
- - - - - - - - - - - - -
“The upward revision to second-quarter growth was largely because consumers spent at a slightly faster pace than first estimated. Consumer spending grew a 1.7 percent rate, better than the 1.5 percent initial estimated. Exports, which add to growth, were also stronger, growing at a 6 percent rate.” — CNBC
Republican speakers toe economic hard line - MarketWatch
TAMPA, Fla. (MarketWatch) — Republican Party A-listers on Tuesday night sought to frame November’s election as a choice about the size and scope of government as they introduced Mitt Romney to a national audience.
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, a GOP hero for taking on labor unions and then beating back a recall effort in June, told assembled delegates and a national TV audience that Romney understands that “people, not government, create jobs.” It was a direct slap at Barack Obama, whose policies Republicans say are to blame for unemployment above 8%. — Marketwatch
Obama Tells Donors Europe to Blame for Weak Job Growth - Bloomberg
President Barack Obama told campaign donors in Chicago and Minnesota that Europe’s sovereign debt crisis is largely to blame for the slowest month of U.S. employment growth in a year, seeking to counter an issue weighing on his re-election bid. — Bloomberg
- - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Obama hasn’t done a good job managing the economy and now his political fate is tied to it. He does have a point when he blames Europe for our current economic weakness, but I doubt voters will listen this time.
Obama Re-Election Momentum Hits Snag in April Jobs Report - Bloomberg
“Mitt Romney looks to be the front-runner for the Republican Party in the presidential elections. It is clear that he has no misgivings on China being a currency manipulator. If the U.S. economy were to go into a double-dip recession, Obama’s chances of reelection would decrease markedly, while Romney’s would increase. The probability of this political outcome can be seen in real time here,here and here (notice the inverse correlation between the final two charts). Should Romney become the Republican front-runner, a double-dip recession could clear the way for his election and dangerously increase the risk of protectionism.” — (RCS Investments Macro Outlook Begn-2012) —-
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
My hunch of Obama’s reelection chances hinging on the U.S. recovery seems accurate. Make sure to check out his chances in real time.
Obama Advisers Revising Economic Outlook for Greater Job Growth - Bloomberg
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
As I covered in my latest macro outlook, as long as the economy is improving, this is Obama’s election to lose.
The president’s political fate lies in which direction the economy takes. So far so good.
Review & Outlook: Racing for Protectionism - WSJ.com
I wasn’t the only one with raised eyebrows when Obama spoke about his Trade Enforcement Unit.
Fuel Fix » Harper builds oil links with China after Keystone rejection
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
I’ve heard some terrible feedback on this decision; China has benefited from Obama’s game of politics.
The Most Important Paragraphs of Obama’s State of the Union Speech
No, we will not go back to an economy weakened by outsourcing, bad debt, and phony financial profits. Tonight, I want to speak about how we move forward, and lay out a blueprint for an economy that’s built to last - an economy built on American manufacturing, American energy, skills for American workers, and a renewal of American values…
This blueprint begins with American manufacturing.
So we have a huge opportunity, at this moment, to bring manufacturing back. But we have to seize it. Tonight, my message to business leaders is simple: Ask yourselves what you can do to bring jobs back to your country, and your country will do everything we can to help you succeed.
We should start with our tax code. Right now, companies get tax breaks for moving jobs and profits overseas. Meanwhile, companies that choose to stay in America get hit with one of the highest tax rates in the world. It makes no sense, and everyone knows it.
So let’s change it. First, if you’re a business that wants to outsource jobs, you shouldn’t get a tax deduction for doing it. That money should be used to cover moving expenses for companies like Master Lock that decide to bring jobs home.
Second, no American company should be able to avoid paying its fair share of taxes by moving jobs and profits overseas. From now on, every multinational company should have to pay a basic minimum tax. And every penny should go towards lowering taxes for companies that choose to stay here and hire here.
Third, if you’re an American manufacturer, you should get a bigger tax cut. If you’re a high-tech manufacturer, we should double the tax deduction you get for making products here. And if you want to relocate in a community that was hit hard when a factory left town, you should get help financing a new plant, equipment, or training for new workers.
My message is simple. It’s time to stop rewarding businesses that ship jobs overseas, and start rewarding companies that create jobs right here in America. Send me these tax reforms, and I’ll sign them right away.
——————————————————
I will go anywhere in the world to open new markets for American products. And I will not stand by when our competitors don’t play by the rules. We’ve brought trade cases against China at nearly twice the rate as the last administration - and it’s made a difference. Over a thousand Americans are working today because we stopped a surge in Chinese tires. But we need to do more. It’s not right when another country lets our movies, music, and software be pirated. It’s not fair when foreign manufacturers have a leg up on ours only because they’re heavily subsidized.
Tonight, I’m announcing the creation of a Trade Enforcement Unit that will be charged with investigating unfair trade practices in countries like China. There will be more inspections to prevent counterfeit or unsafe goods from crossing our borders. And this Congress should make sure that no foreign company has an advantage over American manufacturing when it comes to accessing finance or new markets like Russia. Our workers are the most productive on Earth, and if the playing field is level, I promise you - America will always win.
——————————————————
Do we want to keep these tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans? Or do we want to keep our investments in everything else - like education and medical research; a strong military and care for our veterans? Because if we’re serious about paying down our debt, we can’t do both.
The American people know what the right choice is. So do I. As I told the Speaker this summer, I’m prepared to make more reforms that rein in the long term costs of Medicare and Medicaid, and strengthen Social Security, so long as those programs remain a guarantee of security for seniors.
But in return, we need to change our tax code so that people like me, and an awful lot of Members of Congress, pay our fair share of taxes. Tax reform should follow the Buffett rule: If you make more than $1 million a year, you should not pay less than 30 percent in taxes. And my Republican friend Tom Coburn is right: Washington should stop subsidizing millionaires. In fact, if you’re earning a million dollars a year, you shouldn’t get special tax subsidies or deductions. On the other hand, if you make under $250,000 a year, like 98 percent of American families, your taxes shouldn’t go up. You’re the ones struggling with rising costs and stagnant wages. You’re the ones who need relief.
Now, you can call this class warfare all you want. But asking a billionaire to pay at least as much as his secretary in taxes? Most Americans would call that common sense.
——————————————————
Let’s never forget: Millions of Americans who work hard and play by the rules every day deserve a Government and a financial system that do the same. It’s time to apply the same rules from top to bottom: No bailouts, no handouts, and no copouts. An America built to last insists on responsibility from everybody…
So if you’re a big bank or financial institution, you are no longer allowed to make risky bets with your customers’ deposits. You’re required to write out a “living will” that
details exactly how you’ll pay the bills if you fail - because the rest of us aren’t bailing you out ever again. And if you’re a mortgage lender or a payday lender or a credit
card company, the days of signing people up for products they can’t afford with confusing forms and deceptive practices are over. Today, American consumers finally have a watchdog in Richard Cordray with one job: To look out for them.
——————————————————
Right now, our most immediate priority is stopping a tax hike on 160 million working Americans while the recovery is still fragile. People cannot afford losing $40 out of each paycheck this year. There are plenty of ways to get this done. So let’s agree right here, right now: No side issues. No drama. Pass the payroll tax cut without delay.
—————————————————-
From this position of strength, we’ve begun to wind down the war in Afghanistan. Ten thousand of our troops have come home. Twenty- three thousand more will leave by the end of this summer. This transition to Afghan lead will continue, and we will build an enduring partnership with Afghanistan, so that it is never again a source of attacks against America.
——————————————————
And we will safeguard America’s own security against those who threaten our citizens, our friends, and our interests. Look at Iran. Through the power of our diplomacy, a world that was once divided about how to deal with Iran’s nuclear program now stands as one. The regime is more isolated than ever before; its leaders are faced with crippling sanctions, and as long as they shirk their responsibilities, this pressure will not relent. Let there be no doubt: America is determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon, and I will take no options off the table to achieve that goal. But a peaceful resolution of this issue is still possible, and far better, and if Iran changes course and meets its obligations, it can rejoin the community of nations.
——————————————————

