Tuesday, November 6, 2012
Here we go.  
While I believed since the beginning of the year that Obama’s chances for reelection would be tied to which way the U.S. economy goes, and therefore deteriorating due to its continued sluggishness, they have fared better than I thought they would when I wrote my mid-year outlook in July.  This has been due to a resilient economy even in the face of souring global business conditions.  The election is still a barn burner though.  
The situation in Europe continues to be delicate with Spanish and Italian 10-yr bond yields still elevated.  On the bright side, it has improved with Italian bond yields testing an important support level and a visible downward trend in Spanish yields.  If Italian yields can break through support and Spanish ones can remain at their current levels, there could be economic stabilization ahead.  
Keep an eye on copper.  A triangle, with its base beginning in 2011 is close to resolving.  I believe its resolution will be a significant signal to the direction of the global economy.

Here we go.  

While I believed since the beginning of the year that Obama’s chances for reelection would be tied to which way the U.S. economy goes, and therefore deteriorating due to its continued sluggishness, they have fared better than I thought they would when I wrote my mid-year outlook in July.  This has been due to a resilient economy even in the face of souring global business conditions.  The election is still a barn burner though.  

The situation in Europe continues to be delicate with Spanish and Italian 10-yr bond yields still elevated.  On the bright side, it has improved with Italian bond yields testing an important support level and a visible downward trend in Spanish yields.  If Italian yields can break through support and Spanish ones can remain at their current levels, there could be economic stabilization ahead.  

Keep an eye on copper.  A triangle, with its base beginning in 2011 is close to resolving.  I believe its resolution will be a significant signal to the direction of the global economy.

Thursday, October 4, 2012
Frankly, I didn’t watch the debate.  I think both candidates are hacks as far as getting the economy back on track.  Obama supported a privatize the gains and socialize the losses approach, while Romney is looking for a trade war against China.  
BUT….. this isn’t about my pessimistic views…. it’s about first impressions about who won.  It looks like Romney was the winner.  I may be right after all.  

Frankly, I didn’t watch the debate.  I think both candidates are hacks as far as getting the economy back on track.  Obama supported a privatize the gains and socialize the losses approach, while Romney is looking for a trade war against China.  

BUT….. this isn’t about my pessimistic views…. it’s about first impressions about who won.  It looks like Romney was the winner.  I may be right after all.  

Wednesday, September 19, 2012 Wednesday, September 12, 2012 Thursday, August 30, 2012
A weak economy and high unemployment could hurt President Barack Obama re-election chances in November and bolster Republican challenger Mitt Romney’s campaign. Republicans are in Tampa, Florida, this week to formally nominate Romney and have pointed to the dismal growth in making the case to elect their candidate. (via New GDP Numbers Do Obama No Favors — US Business News - CNBC)
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I’ve had a jump on this trend since the beginning of the year:
  "While Obama has exercised enormous patience for China’s economic restructuring, political will is clearly decreasing.  Mitt Romney looks to be the front-runner for the Republican Party in the presidential elections.  It is clear that he has no misgivings on China being a currency manipulator.  If the U.S. economy were to go into a double-dip recession, Obama’s chances of reelection would decrease markedly, while Romney’s would increase.  The probability of this political outcome can be seen in real time here, here and here (notice the inverse correlation between the final two charts).”
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Here’s my mid year outlook:
"If one’s higher probability scenario calls further economic turbulence, like mine, it would be prudent to begin wondering what life would be like under a Romney presidency in regard to global trade."
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While it’s not a given that Romney will win, it seems that a worsening economy would doom Obama.  
On the other hand, the revision upwards was due to stronger than expected consumer spending:
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“The upward revision to second-quarter growth was largely because consumers spent at a slightly faster pace than first estimated. Consumer spending grew a 1.7 percent rate, better than the 1.5 percent initial estimated. Exports, which add to growth, were also stronger, growing at a 6 percent rate.” — CNBC

A weak economy and high unemployment could hurt President Barack Obama re-election chances in November and bolster Republican challenger Mitt Romney’s campaign. Republicans are in Tampa, Florida, this week to formally nominate Romney and have pointed to the dismal growth in making the case to elect their candidate. (via New GDP Numbers Do Obama No Favors — US Business News - CNBC)


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I’ve had a jump on this trend since the beginning of the year:

"While Obama has exercised enormous patience for China’s economic restructuring, political will is clearly decreasing.  Mitt Romney looks to be the front-runner for the Republican Party in the presidential elections.  It is clear that he has no misgivings on China being a currency manipulator.  If the U.S. economy were to go into a double-dip recession, Obama’s chances of reelection would decrease markedly, while Romney’s would increase.  The probability of this political outcome can be seen in real time here, here and here (notice the inverse correlation between the final two charts).”

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Here’s my mid year outlook:

"If one’s higher probability scenario calls further economic turbulence, like mine, it would be prudent to begin wondering what life would be like under a Romney presidency in regard to global trade."

- - - - - - - - - - -  

While it’s not a given that Romney will win, it seems that a worsening economy would doom Obama.  

On the other hand, the revision upwards was due to stronger than expected consumer spending:

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The upward revision to second-quarter growth was largely because consumers spent at a slightly faster pace than first estimated. Consumer spending grew a 1.7 percent rate, better than the 1.5 percent initial estimated. Exports, which add to growth, were also stronger, growing at a 6 percent rate.” — CNBC


Wednesday, August 29, 2012 Friday, July 13, 2012
There’s a way to deal with this problem and a way not to deal with it. Congress passing a law outlining stringent requirements for dealing with the Chinese and the value of the currency, I think is inappropriate

Romney and Republican House leader far apart on China currency | Reuters

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I wholeheartedly agree with Mr. Boehner.  Patience is warranted.  

Monday, July 9, 2012
Thursday, February 9, 2012
The president’s handling of the economy has been the main line of attack by the Republicans running to face him in November, including former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, who has said the recovery has been sluggish because of Obama’s policies.

Obama Advisers Revising Economic Outlook for Greater Job Growth - Bloomberg

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As I covered in my latest macro outlook, as long as the economy is improving, this is Obama’s election to lose.

The president’s political fate lies in which direction the economy takes.  So far so good.   

Tuesday, January 24, 2012