Tuesday, April 8, 2014 Friday, March 7, 2014 Monday, February 17, 2014 Saturday, February 1, 2014 Thursday, January 9, 2014 Saturday, December 14, 2013
She stated that high youth unemployment could create a generation of young people without any skills. 
"What is at stake is Europe’s potential for growth in the future," Lagarde said. 
"Unemployment at a young age means a lack of on-the-job training, depreciating skills, and possible withdrawal from the labour market. Experience tells us that long spells of unemployment lead to a less productive workforce down the road." (via PressTV - Youth unemployment could tear Europe apart: IMF)

She stated that high youth unemployment could create a generation of young people without any skills.

"What is at stake is Europe’s potential for growth in the future," Lagarde said.

"Unemployment at a young age means a lack of on-the-job training, depreciating skills, and possible withdrawal from the labour market. Experience tells us that long spells of unemployment lead to a less productive workforce down the road." (via PressTV - Youth unemployment could tear Europe apart: IMF)

Sunday, October 20, 2013
Last Week in Brazil and Mexico: October 14-18, 2013

Succinct summation of macro events in the first and second largest economies of the LATAM region.


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Last Week in Brazil and Mexico: October 14-18, 2013

Succinct summation of macro events in the first and second largest economies of the LATAM region.

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Friday, April 5, 2013

Weekly Bull/Bear Recap: Apr. 1-5, 2013

This objective report concisely summarizes important macro events over the past week.  It is not geared to push an agenda.  Impartiality is necessary to avoid costly psychological traps, which all investors are prone to, such as confirmation, conservatism, and endowment biases. 

—————————————————————————-

Bull

+ A healthy trend in U.S. truck sales signals underlying strength in heavy equipment industries:

image

  • Manufacturing remains a strong source of growth as per Markit’s PMI, which printed 54.6 for March.  New export orders surprised to the upside, signaling expansion in foreign orders, while order backlogs potend further strength ahead for the sector. The report mirrors strength in the February Factory Orders (ex-defense) indicator, which rose a strong 2.4%, reestablishing a strong uptrend.
  • The housing recovery continues to show traction, evident by a strong construction spending report for February.  YoY, overall construction rebounded to 7.9% vs. 6.1% in January.

+  Global economic activity is stabilizing: 

+ Stocks largely recover from triple-digit losses today despite a sub-par jobs report.  The Fed is “Full Steam Ahead" with QE.  The Fed will continue to aid the the recovery.  Furthermore, today’s job report actually has some bright spots.  Leading indicators of employment, such as temporary help employment and construction jobs, are indicating a strengthening job market and economy.  “‘Jobs day’ chatter is irresistible but almost without content. Monthly jobs numbers provide imperfect portraits of the recent past, and they are very poor predictors of the labor market’s future.”   

 

Bear

- Job creation slowed substantially in March (slowest in 9-months; Labor-force participation at 1979 levels), while corporate layoffs are 30% above year ago levels according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Challenger, Gray, & Christmas respectively.  Moreover, an additional spike in Jobless Claims, now at 385K, and a 3rd consecutive decline in the Rasmussen Employment Index further confirms that rose-shaded glasses worn by economists need to be put away quickly.  The U.S. economy is extremely vulnerable to further fiscal contraction and a weakening global economy.

image 

- Markit’s rosy view of U.S. manufacturing isn’t confirmed by the Institute of Supply Management, which reported a significant weakening in growth in March.  The index fell from 54.3 to 51.3.    

- On the global front,

Thursday, August 2, 2012 Thursday, October 27, 2011
Olsen, 24, has become a rallying cry for the Occupy Wall Street movement nationwide.

The escalation continues, mostly in line with what I’ve speculated.  

Wounded veteran improving as protesters urge strike | Reuters

Tuesday, March 22, 2011

Libya

lifeliberty:

Obama in 2007 - “The President does not have power under the Constitution to unilaterally authorize a military attack in a situation that does not involve stopping an actual or imminent threat to the nation.”


Regardless of whether you support U.S. military action in Libya, the fact that the President authorized this action without the approval of Congress should scare you…

The whole situation is scary. What’s scarier is the fact that if things in the Middle East spiral out of control, oil would rocket higher to the point of breaking the back of the current recovery.  Then you’ll have the same shit that happened in 2008.  Massive amounts of money will be lost.  Retirees will be more in the hole.  Unemployment would rise again.  We’d be at risk of a Depression.  This is why this attack on Libya was authorized.  What is happening in the Middle East is an actual and imminent threat….to our economy and therefore the nation.  It’s a shame that the US is so addicted to oil that we have no control of our economic destiny anymore.  We are trying to control it, that’s why we are over there.  But we really aren’t in control anymore.  

We need not look at Libya, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, or Barhain though.  The true perpetrator of this chaos works at the Federal Reserve and is engaging in the ludicrous policy of Quantitative Easing, thereby making all commodities rise in value.  Commodity prices these days do not reflect fundamental factors such as supply and demand.  They reflect speculations on the part of investors with freshly printed dollars.  QE needs to stop.  Plain and simple. 

Friday, March 4, 2011

Will it get worse?  That’s the $64,000,000 question. (Saudi Arabia)

Saturday, February 12, 2011
Click on the pic for a great synopsis on the large structural unemployment problem.  Interestingly the author points out how technological innovation has actually been a negative factor with regards to our unemployment problem.  I had written about this in the past.  While Ross Perot’s quote of “giant sucking sound” may had been intended towards the impact of globalization, I don’t think many people have in mind how technological innovation has translated to the same effect. 

Click on the pic for a great synopsis on the large structural unemployment problem.  Interestingly the author points out how technological innovation has actually been a negative factor with regards to our unemployment problem.  I had written about this in the past.  While Ross Perot’s quote of “giant sucking sound” may had been intended towards the impact of globalization, I don’t think many people have in mind how technological innovation has translated to the same effect. 

Saturday, February 5, 2011 Tuesday, December 7, 2010